Hungry for Change

Food security is becoming a pressing, underlying issue of climate

Gaunt little faces, bony body structures and rib cages sticking out above abnormally large tummies, bare feet on grime. These images are the quintessential epitome of world hunger, usually depicted by children who are the number one victim of what can be considered as today’s greatest human tragedy.

In 2009 alone, the undernourished or hungry people all over the world increased to 1.02 billion, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). And in the next 40 years, things are bound to get worse. FAO Representative in the Philippines Kazuyuki Tsurumi, in his talk at the Philippine Council for Industry and Energy Research Development (PCIERD) 28th anniversary celebration held at the Hyatt Hotel in Manila, warns that the world population will balloon to 9.1 billion, 34% higher than today and 70% of the population will be urbanized, although rural areas will still be home to the hungry and poor. This, consequently, will result in a 70% increase in the global demand for food.

Meanwhile, World Food Programme (WFP) Philippines Country Director and Representative Stephen Anderson notes that the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10% to 20% due to climate change within the same period.

Exacerbating this predicament are environmental challenges such as climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, and water scarcity. The world food system that is supposed to provide enough while ensuring sustainable management of resources is threatened – big time. Tsurumi confirms that climate change has affected the equilibrium between supply and demand as far as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry are concerned. “If one or more of the four components of food security namely food availability, food accessibility, food utilization, and food system stability are uncertain, it is in a vulnerable state,” the FAO representative says. 

FIGURE 1. Four Components of Food Security

In his presentation from the same event, Anderson notes that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the alarming effects of climate change on hunger and food security. As this global phenomenon intensifies, extreme weather conditions such as drought and flooding, there is a threat of more natural disasters. Rising sea levels destroy farmlands (contamination and salination of water and agricultural lands), leading to reduced land and water. Echoing Tsurumi’s assertion, he notes that agricultural productivity is a fragile area because of changing rainfall patterns, especially in areas like the Sub-Saharan Africa. Decreased water quality and availability in arid and semiarid regions causes sanitation problems and malnutrition and the abnormal shifts in seasons lead to conflicts over scarce resources, migration, and displacement.

IMPACTS ON FOOD AVAILABILITY

Meanwhile, Tsurumi points out that there is a positive side to the change in the composition of the atmosphere. For instance, the “greenhouse fertilization effect” can stimulate plant growth with yields increasing by 10% to 25% for crops with lower rate of photosynthetic efficiency (in temperate zones). Thus, it is unlikely to influence world food supply projections.

Tsurumi adds the effects of mean temperature increase vary according to location. Moderate warming (increases of 1 to 3?C in average temperature) will benefit crops and pasture yields in temperate regions while it is likely to have negative impacts for cereal crops in tropical and seasonally dry regions. An increase of more than 3?C will definitely cause an unpretty sight for productions in all regions. 

During the European heatwave of 2003 (where temperature was above 6?C), crop yields fell significantly – by 36% for maize in Italy, by 25% for fruits, and by 30% for forage in France. Increased intensity and frequency of

FAO says there is nothing much to worry about in the next two decades as the impact of climate change on global crop production will still be manageable. In the following years, however, people need to watch out for widespread declines in cropland productivity. In fact, predictions of excessive drought and more storm-inflicted havoc are already evident and being experienced worldwide. 

FOOD AID

The negative impacts of climate change on food production and availability will push the fight against world hunger to the limits. “Even small amounts of warming will increase risk of hunger in poor developing countries,” warns the FAO representative.  And at the end of the firing line are the poor and food insecure who have the least capacity to adapt. “They are often highly exposed to natural hazards, greatly dependent on climate-sensitive resources, and have limited economic and technological resources,” Tsurumi points out.

As the food assistance arm of the United Nations, Anderson’s organization responds to this threat. WFP contributes to the global strategy for climate change adaptation through response to climate-related emergencies and implementation of activities for food-insecure communities to build resilience to climatic shocks. “The overarching goal is to save lives. And today, malnutrition is a major determinant of mortality,” Anderson notes. Thus, WFP Philippines is actively working with local agencies such as the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) in programs to aid vulnerable individuals through general nutrition support, correcting malnutrition, and micronutrient interventions.

WFP’s relief and recovery programs are geared toward building preparedness for future crisis. Adaptation and mitigation are tantamount to merely responding. WFP helps communities to adapt to climate change through programs on water conservation management and land rehabilitation. On top of these, the organization is continuously developing tools to predict looming disasters and cushion their impact. Among these are vulnerability and analysis mapping, expertise in giving early warning of impending challenges, geographic information systems (GIS), and weather index-based insurance.

“If we deem this issue unaddressed, we undoubtedly risk increasing poverty and hardship. This should not be allowed to happen,” Anderson ends.

(Above photo) WARNING. FAO's Tsurumi and WFP Philippines' Anderson outline the effects of climate change on food security